← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 55% | 54% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
| Academica win | 19% | 19% | 5.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 320.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1514.35 | 1474.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.91 | -22.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 44.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |