← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 60% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 26% | 5.97 | value: +54% |
| Vitória SC win | 8% | 14% | 12.05 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1558.23 | 1910.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.75 | 7.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| league points | 51.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 2.53 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |