← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 43% | 2.49 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.19 | fair |
| Setubal win | 30% | 25% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 435.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.64 | 1439.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.54 | -10.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |