← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 49% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
| Boavista win | 22% | 21% | 4.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 708.00 | 951.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.15 | 1465.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.55 | -9.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 27.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.06 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |