← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 43% | 43% | 2.27 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 26% | 3.36 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1042.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1529.71 | 1512.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.96 | 12.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |