← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 39% | 41% | 2.49 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.16 | value: +3% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 1037.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1533.18 | 1533.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.04 | 11.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |