← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 74% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 17% | 7.10 | value: +21% |
| Setubal win | 5% | 9% | 19.34 | value: +70% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.45 | 1876.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.93 | 6.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.76 | 1.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |