← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 36% | 39% | 2.68 | value: +3% |
| Penafiel win | 33% | 25% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1308.60 | 1478.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.72 | -13.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| state index | -1.57 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |