← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 35% | 2.72 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 32% | 30% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.05 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 944.00 | 428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.00 | 1466.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | -7.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |