← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 69% | 77% | 1.41 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.03 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 7% | 8.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 943.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1765.16 | 1566.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.90 | 12.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 66.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.33 |
| state index | 1.34 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |