← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 50% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 21% | 18% | 4.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1034.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1543.68 | 1550.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.10 | 3.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 47.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |