CD Nacional 2–0 Penafiel

← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
CD Nacional win	62%	65%	1.56	fair
Draw	23%	18%	4.32	fair
Penafiel win	15%	17%	6.49	value: +10%

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	CD Nacional	Penafiel
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.10	0.25
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	937.00	—
comeback rate (last 20)	0.05	0.00
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
elo	1583.08	1339.33
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.02	-19.13
form points (last 5)	5.00	2.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-0.40	-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)	1.80	2.60
goals for avg (last 5)	1.40	1.00
goals volatility (last 10)	0.97	1.16
h2 goals (last 10)	1.00	0.60
h2h win rate (last 5)	0.60	0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.25	0.35
league points	37.00	18.00
league rank	10.00	18.00
matches since blank	14.00	0.00
matches since clean sheet	6.00	7.00
matches since win	1.00	7.00
rest days	6.00	7.00
season ppg	1.28	0.62
state index	0.32	-1.35
venue ppg (last 5)	2.60	0.80