← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 38% | 40% | 2.55 | fair |
| Setubal win | 31% | 24% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 37% | 3.20 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 937.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1454.09 | 1440.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.42 | 4.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 29.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |