← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 35% | 35% | 2.78 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 34% | 34% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1028.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1513.12 | 1542.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.94 | -13.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |