← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 42% | 45% | 2.34 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.31 | value: +3% |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 23% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1028.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1569.48 | 1545.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.79 | 7.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |