← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 45% | 49% | 2.18 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.17 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 25% | 25% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1492.82 | 1389.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.25 | -31.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.69 |
| state index | -0.26 | -1.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |