← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 39% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.31 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 931.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1524.45 | 1561.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.84 | -3.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |