← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 35% | 32% | 2.77 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 34% | 39% | 2.86 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1449.36 | 1543.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.77 | -8.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |