← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 38% | 33% | 2.57 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 38% | 3.01 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 230.00 | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1387.11 | 1515.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.54 | 25.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.32 |
| state index | -1.16 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |