← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 40% | 42% | 2.42 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1016.00 | 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1536.57 | 1504.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.26 | 17.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.41 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |