← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 78% | 78% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.85 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 6% | 7% | 17.40 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 285.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1654.60 | 1329.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.79 | -10.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 50.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.67 |
| state index | 0.66 | -1.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |