← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 63% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
| Setubal win | 13% | 16% | 7.28 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.42 | 1751.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.24 | -2.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.11 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |