← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 58% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 30% | 5.81 | value: +72% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 8% | 12% | 11.98 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1014.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1519.87 | 1867.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.95 | 15.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| league points | 37.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 2.41 |
| state index | 0.21 | 1.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |