← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 37% | 37% | 2.61 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 406.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1461.29 | 1541.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.45 | -25.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.59 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |