← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 88% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.20 | fair |
| Academica win | 3% | 3% | 37.00 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2110.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1903.45 | 1496.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.65 | 31.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| league points | 68.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |