← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 39% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.07 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 29% | 25% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 678.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1443.66 | 1498.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.94 | -9.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |