← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel win | 37% | 37% | 2.66 | fair |
| Boavista win | 32% | 35% | 3.06 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1327.11 | 1474.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.87 | 15.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| league points | 17.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.08 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |