← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 84% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.42 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 5% | 5% | 19.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2103.00 | 915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1900.74 | 1559.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.14 | -4.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| league points | 65.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.27 |
| state index | 1.79 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |