← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 42% | 43% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.09 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 34.00 | 399.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1486.31 | 1473.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.06 | -3.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 36.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |