← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 19% | 16% | 5.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 671.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1535.44 | 1449.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.11 | 20.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 40.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 11.96 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |