← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +5% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 214.00 | 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.48 | 1668.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.35 | 4.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.81 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |