← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 36% | 41% | 2.73 | value: +12% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 33% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1497.82 | 1518.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.91 | 7.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |