← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 67% | 77% | 1.45 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 21% | 15% | 4.69 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 12% | 9% | 8.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1750.27 | 1541.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.75 | -28.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |