← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 41% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.22 | value: +12% |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 386.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1473.83 | 1511.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.32 | -10.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |