← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 37% | 41% | 2.62 | value: +9% |
| Belenenses win | 32% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 902.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1465.71 | 1495.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.90 | 5.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |