← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 44% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +5% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1438.42 | 1410.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.92 | 2.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |