← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 57% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 17% | 13% | 5.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 993.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.18 | 1347.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.38 | -12.16 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.64 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |