← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 89% | 92% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 5% | 11.40 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 3% | 3% | 36.00 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 257.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1892.13 | 1456.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.93 | 7.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 58.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 0.83 |
| state index | 1.97 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |