← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 37% | 44% | 2.65 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 31% | 25% | 3.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 195.00 | 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.76 | 1463.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.78 | -15.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 19.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |