← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 66% | 70% | 1.48 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.54 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 13% | 8% | 7.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2082.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1914.32 | 1656.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | 36.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 62.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.92 |
| state index | 2.00 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |