← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.64 | value: +8% |
| Boavista win | 20% | 17% | 4.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 893.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1491.18 | 1473.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.49 | 15.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 33.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |