← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 84% | 88% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 8% | 8.55 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 4% | 3% | 23.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1743.52 | 1332.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.13 | 1.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 47.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 0.70 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |