← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 38% | 40% | 2.56 | value: +3% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 33% | 30% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.62 | 1499.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.17 | 2.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |