← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 16% | 17% | 5.99 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 980.00 | 188.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1552.21 | 1415.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.16 | 23.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |