← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 75% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.45 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 6% | 10% | 16.67 | value: +68% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 645.00 | 2076.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.15 | 1911.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.71 | 7.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 2.57 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |