← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Mon, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 29% | 29% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1507.98 | 1486.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.33 | 8.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |