← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 57% | 63% | 1.70 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.97 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 18% | 17% | 5.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 243.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1852.03 | 1753.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.01 | 8.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 2.14 |
| state index | 1.54 | 1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |