← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 36% | 39% | 2.72 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.04 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 32% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1340.33 | 1473.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.02 | -20.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |