← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 40% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.96 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 27% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1465.66 | 1439.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.79 | -3.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |