← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 88% | 1.23 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 16% | 7% | 6.26 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 5% | 5% | 19.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2068.00 | 972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1908.11 | 1555.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | -47.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.55 | 1.14 |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |